Reportedly the lake level continues to rise. The estimates from satellite imagery suggest that the volume may have now exceeded 500 million cubic metres into Attabad Lake as weather is getting warmer and glaciers are melting fast. But the expected decrease of freeboard is not being achieved to facilitate the overtopping (over flow) of water from over the spill way as was expected to top over by May 24/25th.
A caveat certainly applies that estimated volume of some 500 million cubic meters of water is contained in such a narrow Attabad lake of loose eroding soil which is highly dangerous. Daily increase of water into lake is not attaining the rise in the water level and is not automatically translated into reduction of freeboard. Keeping the nature of soil the deformation and swelling of lake bed may give the way to water to travel within the lake to multi burst points.
Reportedly the spill way made of debris from the slides is weak in nature but being at the turning point of the River is sufficiently strong at least to block the water as the mass of water is seemingly contained by the curved sides near the mouth of the lake. The subject blockage expected to serve as spill way is made of lose clay debris and already many seepage holes are discovered in it. There is likely hood that massive volume of water is already pushing out and up lifting the lake floor on to the sides and loosening the weak clay deposit under the spill way; it may collapse and lake may bursts out.
The expert may tell us better but to keep the spill way intact in order to prevent the downstream wide spread disaster and devastation, it is but necessary that an adequate water draining arrangements by laying the mega poly pipes or other flexi artificial Siphons System over the spill way may be the only solution to drain the lake as well as save the situation and its sudden outburst which may damage even the downstream Tarbela dam is prevented.